Expected Death Rate

M

mikestrauss

Squire
This is a delicate discussion topic because it pushes a lot of people's buttons, but I have been wanting to discuss it for a while and some recent events have pushed me to approach the issue.

Assume, for purposes of this discussion, you are playing a character that is played in only a single chapter and is played at all (or nearly all) of the events that chapter runs each year. Also assume that you do not play overly cautiously or overly aggressively, but that you tend to participate in every wave battle and 1-2 modules a weekend. How often would you expect your character to take a death?
(The assumptions are there to set a common frame of reference)

-MS
 
I know that my personal viewpoint on this question is probably a little off. When I first started playing the game, the number of life spells that existed in the game could be counted on one hand and it took quite some time before that number even got into the double digits. As such, that first minute of bleeding out was VERY important. If you passed it, you were almost certain to die.

While the game has changed a lot since then, like most people, my perceptions were formed by my initial contact with the game. I have taken great pains (especially in recent years) to evolve with the game, but I am probably a bit of a grognard despite my pains. When I first started playing, a character played the way I described would probably die twice a season and it wouldn't be shocking if such a character died as often as once per event.

In my opinion, I would expect a character played this way to die roughly once per season with the current game. Thus, I would expect such a character to pretty surely survive about 3 years and to average somewhere around 5-7 years.

Am I way off base?

-MS
 
Once every two years or so. It depends heavily on the deadliness of the chapter, how many events they have per season, and the apl of the chapter. I had a similar "low life spell" experience when I started, but that was 13 years ago in a chapter whose apl was under 10 with less than 20 pcs at events. Seattle's apl is 14 and we're at 60+ pcs, so there are lots more life spells. We try to balance that by running a deadlier game, and I think we've succeeded, but we're never going to recreate the feeling where that first minute someone is down for is "do or die" regularly. I think we res about 10% of our playerbase per event on average (in our new campaign, considering that our last event was way low), and have 5-6 events per year, so statistically speaking, once every 2 years sounds right to me.
 
At the most recent SoMN event, where the APL is probably 7 or 8, we had roughly 45 PCs and 5 rezzes. A couple of those came about because we straight-up ran out of life spells, and the other three were on a rather chaotic night-time mod where it was hard to tell where our people were. I want to say this event was a little heavier on people rezzing than the other events this season, but not by a large factor.

Playing a slightly reckless low-level fighter, I've already gone to the circle twice this season - that'll probably slow down a bit as I level up, but I don't think twice a season is unreasonable.
 
Yeah it really depends on play style and the chapter you are playing.
 
Heavily character dependent. When I was playing my Sarr, I averaged 1 or 2 a weekend because he was stupidly aggressive. On my gypsy, I've rezzed once ever.
 
I never understood what an "expected death rate" is. I never go into a chapter and say OK there are 60 PCs so there should be 3 rezes for the weekend. With the exception of plot deaths, being stupid, or pvp, if you fight smart you shouldn't rez. There have been plenty of times when my team has left a battle when we see its going south, there is a reason we have survived for so long and its not luck.

Then again what that saying....."the good always die young"
 
It's not a matter of 'should' nor is there a quota (At least I've never said I demand X ressurections this game to my staff), however that doesn't mean there isn't an expectation based on the general average. Overall for example SoMN averages something like a 5-10% death ratio over the long term, some games it's zero, some games it's double digits, but on average, we see about 1 death per 10-20 pcs, per game. Which, if they were scattered absolutely evenly (they are not) would mean you average character in SoMN that made every game should last...about 7-9ish years. (7 games a year, 1 death per 10 games, mathmatically you are about a 50/50 shot to perm by or on your 3rd pull from the bag)

Now that's an average, and you should see some perms before that time, and some folks live forever (effectively) at that death ratio, but as most folks know deaths often start to cluster. For example we ran a module where one of our local barbarians was extremely prepared to give his all to stop some Vampiric Tribesmen, to the point of getting a regeneration to be able to reform at his bottle on the field instead of resurrecting. That toon had a much higher chance of dieing because the PC was so involved with the story he was willing to pay the price against the shadow magic tossing celestially corrupted vampiric barbarians.
 
I agree that there should never be a quota. The only "expected death rate" should really be that every player should expect that their character will likely take deaths at some point in their career and eventually perm. People running games should (in my opinion) be concerned with telling stories and creating meaningful and fair challenges. Deaths happen, and my personal opinion is that they are an essential part of the game, but should never be a goal for people running a game.
 
Toddo said:
I agree that there should never be a quota. The only "expected death rate" should really be that every player should expect that their character will likely take deaths at some point in their career and eventually perm. People running games should (in my opinion) be concerned with telling stories and creating meaningful and fair challenges. Deaths happen, and my personal opinion is that they are an essential part of the game, but should never be a goal for people running a game.
Click to expand...

At the same time, if the game isn't challenging enough that doing something stupid is likely to result in a death, then we're doing a serious disservice to our players by not giving them the opportunity to earn their rewards rather than have them handed to them.
 
That's where "meaningful and fair challenges" comes in. I don't think anyone would accuse me of softball plot, but the stated goal should be to challenge the PCs, not to murder them. Players can still die due to poor decisions (trying to flank the enemy line alone, talking smack to the wrong noble or PC, not recognizing when a retreat or regroup is called for, falling off a rope swing used to physrep swinging between ships at sea) or bad luck, but deaths should never be the result of an intent to cause rezzes.
 
This is sorta going off topic.

I was actually trying to get a player perspective along the lines of: "I am going to game this weekend, how likely do I think it is that I will take a death?"

-MS
 
mikestrauss said:
This is sorta going off topic.

I was actually trying to get a player perspective along the lines of: "I am going to game this weekend, how likely do I think it is that I will take a death?"

-MS
Click to expand...

I always expect to take a death...it's easier that way.
 
Toddo said:
I agree that there should never be a quota. The only "expected death rate" should really be that every player should expect that their character will likely take deaths at some point in their career and eventually perm. People running games should (in my opinion) be concerned with telling stories and creating meaningful and fair challenges. Deaths happen, and my personal opinion is that they are an essential part of the game, but should never be a goal for people running a game.
Click to expand...


:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: Well put my friend, well put.

mikestrauss said:
This is sorta going off topic.

I was actually trying to get a player perspective along the lines of: "I am going to game this weekend, how likely do I think it is that I will take a death?"

-MS
Click to expand...

I always go into game thinking that I could die, but I never say this is the event where I take a death. I don't expect it, but I acknowledge it.
 
After my first 2 deaths I just assume when it happens it happens. Granted, that doesn't stop me from taking Cloak:Gift and Rebirth when I know the situation would require it.
 
If people at a chapter haven't died a lot in a while, then I expect things to get more dangerous in order to meet the demand for intensity and danger we all seem to enjoy. So the longer it's been since a lot of death has happened the more I expect a high likelihood that I and others will die.

Or to simplify it, staff seem to adjust the risk/deadliness based on how easy or difficult it appears to have been for the players.

That's pretty much what we do, at least.
 
I go into every event prepared to perm... it drives my team nuts.

That doesn't mean I WANT to. But, I don't like to make assumptions.

Stephen
 
I actually don't expect to die at any given individual event. I brace for the possibility I will take a death, but I never *expect* to unless I know that I or my team are going and doing something I expect to be lethal (a plot-concluding mod, a confrontation with something we know to be really powerful, taking actions that will invite punishment from IG authorities, deliberately running off into the woods without support characters with us, etc.), at which point I expect at least one person to die and consider myself a likely (but not the likeliest) candidate. I'd say that averages out to assuming I will die once in any given season.
 
Well, the Calgary chapter just started up, and we've had one Masquerade, 2-3 Tavern nights, and just had our second weekend event on this past weekend. My Gypsy Scout has died twice now, once at each weekend. The first death was during a huge Orc raid were almost everyone was taken out of action and a few of us croaked. This weekend, a few of us were trying to flank a party of Gnolls. It didn't go so well, as 2 Rogues, a Scout and a Templar vs 3 Gnolls wasn't a fair fight after all when the Gnolls are all swinging two weapons for 4 Normal each and we are throwing out 2's, and have an average of 10 armour and 10 Body each.

I'm expecting to lose Garridan soon as next time I die, I'll be digging into that bag with 3 black stones, and I'm famously unlucky. I've already prepped my back up character. There are 3 of us with 2 deaths and 4-5 with 1.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top